Valuasi Harga Wajar SMGR (Q2-2012)

Metode Pak TOM DS (milis OB):

EPS Annualized 2012 = Rp. 710,-
ROE Q2-2012 = 14,4% --> annualized = 14,4% X 2 = 28,8%

BI Rate = 5,75%
Yield SUN = 5,75% + 1 = 6,75%

PER SUN (Z) = 1 / Yield SUN
                       = 1 / 6,75% = 14,81x

Earning premium saham thdp SUN (A) = ROE - Yield SUN
                                                                = 28,8% - 6,75% = 22,05%

Earning multiple premium (B) =  A X Z
                                                  = 22,05% X 14,81x = 3,27x

PER wajar = Z + B
                  = 14,81x + 3,27x = 18,08x

Harga wajar SMGR = PER wajar X EPS annualized
                                 = 18,08x X Rp. 710,- = Rp. 12.833,-


Harga SMGR skrg = Rp. 12.400,-

Margin of safety = 1 - (hrg skrg/hrg wajar)
                           = 1 - (12400/12833) = 3,4%